EVALUATING THE IMPACT OF GEOGRAPHIC AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC FACTORS  ON POPULATION DYNAMICS IN MUNICIPALITIES ACROSS THE EUROPEAN NORTH OF RUSSIA

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Pavel V. Druzhinin

Institute of Economics of the Karelian Research Centre, Russian Academy of Sciences, Petrozavodsk, Russia

pdruzhinin@mail.ru, http://orcid.org/0000-0001-5303-0455

Abstract. As the results of the latest census showed, there is an ongoing depopulation in the European North of Russia, with acceleration observed in the regions that are fully or partially located in the Russian Arctic. This means that the root causes of the population outflow that started in the 1990s remain unaddressed. The goal of this study is to identify the geographic and socio-economic factors influencing population changes in Northern regions, which will provide for adjusting measures aimed at curbing the population loss. The analysis reveals that within Vologda Oblast, municipal population declines are much less pronounced than in regions located at more northern latitudes. There is a noticeable migration to the capital of the region, but it diminishes as the distance from the capital grows. Certain remote municipalities, exhibiting potential for development, attract residents from neighboring areas, leading to much smaller population declines compared  to municipalities closer to the capital. These municipalities tend to have higher average salaries, well-developed railway infrastructure, and growing mining companies. However, the most important factor is the presence of higher and/or vocational education institutions and their branch campuses. Regional authorities are encouraged to prioritize such institutions, as this facilitates the attraction of investors who are less encumbered by the challenge of securing qualified staff in promising municipalities. Our future research will examine investment processes within the municipalities in the European North of Russia.

Keywords: Russian Arctic, European North, municipality, population, migration, geographic location

Acknowledgments: This article was prepared within the study conducted at the Institute of Economics of the Karelian Research Centre and titled “Comprehensive Research and Development of the Fundamentals of Sustainable Development Management in the Northern and Border Regions of Russia in the Context of Global Challenges” (Topic No. 122032200200-2), which is part of the research supported by the government (FMEN-2022-0001).

For citation: Druzhinin P. V. Evaluating the impact of geographic and socio-economic factors on population dynamics  in municipalities across the European North of Russia. Sever i rynok: formirovanie ekonomicheskogo poryadka [The North and the Market: Forming the Economic Order], 2023, no. 2, рр. 78–91. https://doi:10.37614/2220-802X.3.2023.81.005. (In Russ.).

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