Assessing Climate Change Impacts and the Need for Adaptation  in Russia’s Arctic Regions

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Olga V. Gubina1, Anna A. Provorova2

1, 2N. Laverov Federal Center for Integrated Arctic Research of the Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Science, Arkhangelsk, Russia

1welcomeforyou@yandex.ru, ORCID 0000-0002-3678-3911

2aashirikova@mail.ru, ORCID 0000-0002-4573-2761

Abstract. Climate change is increasingly producing social, economic, and environmental impacts that are transforming regional socio-economic systems. In the Arctic, where climate change is progressing rapidly, the region’s relatively high population density and its strategic importance for Russia’s national and economic security make it essential to examine these consequences and develop appropriate adaptation policies. The aim of this study is to assess the scale of climate change impacts across the regions of the Russian Arctic and to determine the degree to which regional adaptation is required. The novelty of the study lies in its application of an original approach to evaluating climate change consequences in the Russian Arctic. This method makes it possible to identify climate trends, quantify socio-economic and socio-ecological impacts, and substantiate the level of adaptation needed for specific types of consequences in each Arctic region. Socio-economic impacts are most pronounced in the eastern part of the Russian Arctic and are linked to decreases in soil freezing depth, shorter heating seasons, a rising frequency of hazardous hydrometeorological events, and increasing forest fire activity. Socio-ecological impacts show no clear regional pattern. Certain environmental consequences, such as the spread of ticks and microbiological contamination of soils and water, are less evident in the high-latitude Arctic, while other climate-related health impacts lack a strict geographical distribution. The magnitude and dynamics of climate change impacts in each region of the Russian Arctic serve as the basis for determining the required level of adaptation within the economic, social, and ecological spheres. Future research should focus on developing detailed adaptation measures tailored to the scale and progression of these impacts. The findings of this study can support the process of making strategic management decisions for the development of Russia’s Arctic amid rapidly changing natural and climatic conditions.

Keywords: climate change, socio-economic impacts, socio-ecological impacts, adaptation, Russian Arctic.

Acknowledgments: This research was conducted as part of the FNIR project titled “Adaptation of Arctic Socio-Ecological-Economic Systems to the Conditions of a Dynamically Changing Environment as a Basis for Increasing the Investment Attractiveness of the Russian Arctic Regions,” No. 125021902573-9.

For citation: Gubina O. V., Provorova A. A. Assessing climate change impacts and the need for adaptation in Russia’s Arctic regions. Sever i rynok: formirovanie ekonomicheskogo poryadka [The North and the Market: Forming the Economic Order], 2025, no. 4, pp. 23–40. doi:10.37614/2220-802X.4.2025.90.002.

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