THE POPULATION AGE STRUCTURE IN THE ARCTIC REGIONS  OF THE REPUBLIC OF SAKHA (YAKUTIA): TRENDS AND DRIVERS OF CHANGE

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Valentina I. Kondratieva1, Anastasia S. Barashkova2

1, 2Research Institute of Regional Economics of the North, North-Eastern Federal University, NEFU, Yakutsk, Russia

1ORCID 0000-0002-4373-3189

2ORCID 0000-0002-3397-5547

 

Abstract

The demographic situation in the Arctic regions presents a complex and multifaceted challenge that constrains their potential for sustainable socio-economic development. Low population density, combined with specific living and working conditions in an extreme climate, affects the birth rate, migration processes, and demographic dynamics. Between 1991 and 2021, the population of the Arctic zone of Yakutia declined by 55%, a trend that appears alarming given the region’s geostrategic importance for Russia. The age structure of the population both shapes and reflects the demographic processes taking place in the region. This study aims to identify the trends and drivers of change in the age structure of the population in the Arctic regions of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia). The novelty of the research lies in its analysis of transformations in the population’s age structure over the span of one generation, using a system of demographic indices. The findings indicate that a combination of traditional and modern forms of demographic reproduction, uncertainty in the scale and direction of migration flows within a statistically small population, and a persistent gender imbalance amid current macroeconomic conditions all influence the trajectory of age structure dynamics. The calculation of the demographic aging index made it possible to classify regions according to the direction and intensity of the observed trends. It was established that population reproduction processes remain the main driver of shifts in the age structure within the sparsely urbanized Arctic territories of Yakutia. At the same time, the direct and indirect effects of migration are evident in the redistribution of key age groups in areas centered around industrial development. The practical significance of this study lies in its potential application of migration inflow and outflow indicators to attract individuals approaching retirement age into the labor market, providing a scientific basis for developing territorially differentiated employment policies. Future research will focus on analyzing migrants’ attitudes toward a long residence in settlement areas and assessing the migration intentions of the local population.

Keywords: population age structure, population aging index, Billeter index, birth rate, migration, Arctic regions

Acknowledgments: This article was prepared as part of a research task assigned by the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Russian Federation (Project No. FSRG-2023-0025).

For citation: Kondratieva V. I., Barashkova A. S. The population age structure in the Arctic regions of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia): Trends and drivers of change. Sever i rynok: formirovanie ekonomicheskogo poryadka [The North and the Market: Forming the Economic Order], 2025, no. 4, pp. 41–56. doi:10.37614/2220-802X.4.2025.90.003.

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