DEVELOPING AN IMPORT-INDEPENDENT OIL AND GAS INDUSTRY IN THE RUSSIAN ARCTIC  AMID SANCTIONS: STRATEGIC PRIORITIES AND TRANSFORMATION PATHWAYS

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Vladislav E. Pechurkin1, Alexey M. Fadeev2, Sergey V. Fedoseev3, Fyodor D. Larichkin4

1, 2Peter the Great St. Petersburg Polytechnic University, St. Petersburg, Russia

2, 3, 4Luzin Institute for Economic Studies of the Kola Science Centre of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Apatity, Russia

1Vladislav180202@gmail.com, ORCID 0009-0004-5640-4781

2AlexFadeev79@gmail.com, ORCID 0000-0002-3833-3316

3s.fedoseev@ksc.ru, ORCID 0009-0006-5752-5395

4f.larichkin@ksc.ru, ORCID 0000-0003-4813-6022

 

Abstract. Strategic transformation of the oil and gas industry is an important component of Russia’s efforts to strengthen technological sovereignty and national security amid sanctions, while targeted import substitution represents one of the key mechanisms for adapting and developing the sector. Restricted access to Western technologies, financing, and expertise increases the importance of developing and localizing critical equipment and services required for the development of Arctic oil and gas fields, where projects are characterized by extreme natural conditions and high technological complexity. This study contributes to the analysis of import independence in the oil and gas sector of the Russian Arctic and expands the existing body of knowledge in this area. The study aims to identify key barriers to the localization of high-tech solutions for the Arctic, assess existing government support measures, and develop a comprehensive cooperation model to accelerate the creation and deployment of domestic Arctic technologies. The study employs comparative analysis, expert assessment to evaluate risks associated with the potential return of Western companies, and project modeling to develop a new ecosystem of technological sovereignty. The scientific novelty lies in the identification and characterization of the technological dependency trap, comprising four interrelated barriers specific to the Arctic oil and gas sector: technological, human-resource, economic, and regulatory. An additional contribution is the scenario analysis of a potential return of Western companies, including the development of a risk matrix and the identification of conditions for their potential reintegration. The theoretical significance of the study lies in extending the concept of technological sovereignty to the extreme operating conditions of the Arctic; developing a comprehensive four-level approach to analyzing import substitution; conceptualizing the role of project-oriented cooperative networks; and expanding risk management theory by incorporating geopolitical and reputational factors. The practical significance of the study lies in the potential application of the findings and the proposed cooperation model in public-sector management of the oil and gas industry and in the development of corporate strategies for the technological development of oil and gas companies. Future research will focus on an in-depth analysis of localization in specific technological niches, including subsea resource development, Arctic shipbuilding, and low-temperature materials; the development of a methodology for assessing the effectiveness of cooperative models; and a comparative analysis of adaptation strategies in countries developing Arctic offshore resources.

Keywords: Russian Arctic, oil and gas industry, import substitution, technological sovereignty, localization, sanctions, innovative ecosystem

For citation: Pechurkin V. E., Fadeev A. M., Fedoseev S. V., Larichkin F. D. Developing an import-independent oil and gas industry in the Russian Arctic amid sanctions: Strategic priorities and transformation pathways. Sever i rynok: formirovanie ekonomicheskogo poryadka [The North and the Market: Forming the Economic Order], 2026, no. 3, pp. 77–93.  doi:10.37614/2220-802X.3.2026.93.005.

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