NONEQUILIBRIUM DYNAMICS IN ARCTIC REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT: IMBALANCES  IN TAX EFFICIENCY ACROSS THE MUNICIPALITIES OF THE ARKHANGELSK REGION

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Natalia А. Roslyakova

  1. A. Trapeznikov Institute of Control Sciences of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia, na@roslyakova24.ru, ORCID 0000-0002-7511-2141

 

Abstract. Russia’s Arctic territories are characterized by pronounced polarization and development disparities. While demonstrating persistent recessionary and inflationary gaps, most of these territories perform geostrategic functions that, from a public policy perspective, outweigh considerations of short-term economic efficiency. At the same time, given the current economic challenges, assessing the tax efficiency of Arctic territories is becoming increasingly important. The aim of this study is to identify aspects of the nonequilibrium dynamics of economic development in the Arctic by analyzing spatial differences in tax efficiency. The study focuses on the Arctic municipalities of the Arkhangelsk Region and draws on data from the SPARK information system. A factor-return equation is employed to assess territorial tax efficiency. The study identifies patterns of territorial and sectoral tax efficiency within a center–periphery framework. The core territory, represented by the regional capital agglomeration, is characterized by a recessionary (deflationary) gap, whereas peripheral territories exhibit the opposite condition, with aggregate demand exceeding aggregate supply and generating an inflationary gap. In peripheral territories characterized by an inflationary gap, manufacturing, electricity generation, and trade are identified as sectors with relatively high tax returns. Investment in these sectors could contribute to reducing persistent nonequilibrium. In the core territory characterized by a recessionary gap, sectors with both relatively high tax returns (manufacturing, mining, transportation and storage) and relatively low tax returns (information and communication, research and development, among others) are identified. The scientific contribution of the study lies in extending the conceptual framework for applying the theory of nonequilibrium dynamics to the analysis of regional socioeconomic systems. The practical significance of the findings lies in the development of recommendations aimed at mitigating nonequilibrium conditions in the economies of Arctic territories. Future research will examine the factor relationships identified for individual sectors from a dynamic perspective.

Keywords: Arctic, Arctic municipalities, recessionary gap, inflationary gap, nonequilibrium dynamics, microdata analysis, enterprises, periphery, factor-return equation

Acknowledgments: This research was funded by the Russian Science Foundation, project number 24-78-10166 “Modeling of spatial development management digital transformation of Russian Arctic in conditions of non-equilibrium dynamics of regions” (https://rscf.ru/project/24-78-10166/).

For citation:. Roslyakova N. А. Nonequilibrium dynamics in Arctic regional development: Imbalances in tax efficiency across the municipalities of the Arkhangelsk Region. Sever i rynok: formirovanie ekonomicheskogo poryadka [The North and the Market: Forming the Economic Order], 2026, no. 3, pp. 164–177. doi:10.37614/2220-802X.3.2026.93.011.

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