TRENDS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE GLOBAL LIQUEFIED NATURAL GAS MARKET AND PROSPECTS FOR THE IMPLEMENTATION OF RUSSIAN ARCTIC PROJECTS

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 Mikhail V. Ulchenko1, Sergey V. Fedoseev2

1, 2Luzin Institute for Economic Studies of the Kola Science Centre of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Apatity, Russia

1m.ulchenko@ksc.ru, ORCID 0000-0002-5227-1772

2s.fedoseev@ksc.ru, ORCID 0000-0002-1224-2213

 Abstract. The environmental agenda, as well as issues of reducing carbon dioxide emissions into the atmosphere, are currently treated as a global trend. In such conditions, developed countries openly and actively declare their plans to switch from coal  to natural gas and renewable energy sources in their energy consumption. At the same time, the liquefied natural gas (LNG) market is developing at such a pace that in 10–15 years, according to experts, it will bypass the pipeline market. Nevertheless, a significant increase in prices for “blue fuel” at the end of 2021 and the first half of 2022 called into question the reality of following the chosen course in the near future. The study identified the main LNG importers by the end of 2021 (China, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan  and India), as well as the key exporters (Australia, Qatar, USA, Russia, Nigeria, Algeria, Malaysia, Oman and Indonesia). The analysis showed that in the medium term, Qatar, the United States and Russia will be able to significantly increase the volume of natural gas and LNG production. Australia, despite its status as the largest exporter of LNG by the end of 2021, due to the shortage  of natural gas in the domestic market, will not be able to increase export volumes in the near future. The purpose of the study  is to analyze the main trends in the development of the global LNG market in new geopolitical conditions and to determine the prospects for the implementation of Russian Arctic LNG projects. The scientific novelty of the work lies in determining the potential of the largest LNG suppliers in terms of increasing the LNG production and export regarding the forthcoming 5–8 years.  The next stage of the work will be the assessment of the prospects for the sale of Russian and American LNG in the European Union and the Asia-Pacific region markets.

Keywords: liquefied natural gas, export, import, production, Arctic, market

Acknowledgments: the research was carried out within the topic “Interaction of global, national and regional factors  in the economic development of the North and the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation” within the state assignment  of the Federal Research Centre “Kola Science Centre of the Russian Academy of Sciences”.

For citation: Ulchenko M. V., Fedoseev S. V. Trends in the development of the global liquefied natural gas market  and prospects for the implementation of Russian Arctic projects. Sever i rynok: formirovanie ekonomicheskogo poryadka [The North and the Market: Forming the Economic Order], 2022, no. 4, pp. 40–57. doi:10.37614/2220-802X.4.2022.78.003

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