DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS AND TRANSFORMATION OF POPULATION DISTRIBUTION IN THE NORTH OF RUSSIA: INSIGHTS FROM THE 2021 CENSUS

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 Viktor V. Fauzer1, Andrey V. Smirnov2, Galina N. Fauzer3

1, 2, 3Institute of Socio-Economic and Energy Problems of the North, Komi Science Centre, Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Syktyvkar, Russia

1fauzer.viktor@yandex.ru, vvfauzer.ru, ORCID 0000-0002-8901-4817

2av.smirnov.ru@gmail.com, ORCID 0000-0001-6952-6834

3gfauzer@yandex.ru

 Abstract. Over the past decades, the population of the North of Russia has decreased by more than a quarter. The leading cause is migration outflow, with natural population movement also contributing to the overall population decline. Comparing the data of the last two censuses will make it possible to understand the full depth of the transformational processes. The purpose of the study is to analyze the demographic trends and changes in population distribution  in the North of Russia based on the results of the 2021 All-Russian Population Census. The originality of the article lies  in the fact that the analysis was carried out at all levels: the macro level, regions, municipalities, and urban settlements.  The article shows that with a general population decline, there is further urbanization of the northern regions  and a reduction in the number and proportion of rural residents. Particularly high population decline is demonstrated  by such regions of the European North as the republics of Komi and Karelia as well as the Arkhangelsk and Murmansk regions. The authors have identified trends in population distribution, such as an increase in the proportion  of the population of large cities and a decrease in the average population of towns and urban-type settlements. Population distribution in the North of Russia is influenced by factors such as the size of the settlement, economic specialization, ethnic composition, and geographical location of the settlement. With the help of spatial analysis, the study identified the clusters of municipalities and settlements with the best and worst trends since 2010. Using Lorenz curves and the Gini coefficient, the authors studied the unevenness of population distribution and economic activity. The study also revealed  that in the vast majority of municipalities in the North, the proportion of men has decreased, which may adversely affect local labor markets. The results of the study may find application in public administration and the development of strategies and programs for the socioeconomic development of the northern territories. Further research should consider  such characteristics of the population as age, ethnic composition, place of birth, length of residence, number of children, and housing conditions.

Keywords: North of Russia, population, demographic trends, gender ratio, settlement, cities, population census

Acknowledgments: This paper was prepared as part of the research project “Human Resources in the Northern Regions  of Russia: Potential for Development or a Limitation to Economic Growth” (No. 122012700169-9, 2022-2024). The authors would like to express their gratitude to Ekaterina Chuprova for her help in preparing the manuscript for publication.

For citation: Fauzer V. V., Smirnov A. V., Fauzer G. N. Demographic Trends and Transformation of Population Distribution  in the North of Russia: Insights from the 2021 Census. Sever i rynok: formirovanie ekonomicheskogo poryadka  [The North and the Market: Forming the Economic Order], 2023, no. 1, pp. 64–79. doi:10.37614/2220-802X.1.2023.79.004

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