ACCIDENTAL OIL SPILLS IN THE ARCTIC: AN ASSESSMENT OF POTENTIAL SOIL DAMAGE

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Marina A. Nevskaya1, Victor V. Belyaev2, Svetlana N. Pasternak3, Victoria V. Vinogradova4, Dinara I. Shagidulina5

1–5Empress Catherine II Saint Petersburg Mining University, St. Petersburg, Russia

1ma.nevsk@yandex.ru, ORCID 0000-0001-5049-1328

2belyaev_rosbi@list.ru, ORCID 0000-0002-4296-6386

3pasternak_sn2@pers.spmi.ru, ORCID 0000-0002-9195-2853

4Vinogradova_VV@pers.spmi.ru, ORCID 0009-0001-1905-352X

5shagidulina.dinara@mail.ru, ORCID 0009-0003-9539-7812

Abstract. The intensification of economic activities by oil and gas companies in the Arctic has significantly increased the risk  of environmental damage, necessitating compensation for potential harm caused by these businesses. A major risk factor in this context is accidental oil spills, which are particularly challenging to predict, thereby complicating the assessment of their consequences and the development of preventive measures. The most advanced forecasting methods rely on probabilistic assessments of spill risk factors, which require special field studies and statistical data. This research considers the key approaches to the economic assessment of environmental damage, emphasizing the need to consider the unique characteristics of the Arctic. The goal of the study is to estimate the most probable soil damage from accidental oil spills using a simulation model. It will be especially relevant for territories where the area affected by accidental oil spills is considerable or has increased significantly over the past few years, according to available statistical data. In the Arctic, the Usinsky District of the Komi Republic is one such region. Using the case of this district, an assessment of potential damage is conducted for three scenarios with varying levels of pollution. The results enable an evaluation of potential damage, providing different values corresponding to multiple scenarios with distinct probabilities. The findings can inform oil and gas companies in developing preventive measures and assist regulatory authorities  in determining appropriate environmental reparations from companies.

Keywords: Arctic, oil spills, simulation modeling, damage assessment

For citation: Nevskaya M. A., Belyaev V. V., Pasternak S. N., Vinogradova V. V., Shagidulina D. I. Accidental oil spills  in the Arctic: An assessment of potential soil damage. Sever i rynok: formirovanie ekonomicheskogo poryadka [The North and the Market: Forming the Economic Order], 2024, no. 3, pp. 107–122. doi:10.37614/2220-802X.3.2024.85.007.

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