RUSSIA’S ARCTIC STRATEGIES OF 2014 AND 2021:  IS CONTINUITY POSSIBLE AMID SHIFTING PRIORITIES? (PART 1)

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Alexander D. Volkov1, Natalia А. Roslyakova2, Evgeniy A. Kanevsky3, Kirill K. Boyarsky4

1, 2V. A. Trapeznikov Institute of Control Sciences, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia

1kov8vol@gmail.com, ORCID 0000-0003-0451-8483

2na@roslyakova24.ru, ORCID 0000-0002-7511-2141

3Institute for Regional Economic Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences, Saint Petersburg, Russia, eak300@mail.ru, ORCID 0000-0002-1498-4632

4ITMO University, Saint Petersburg, Russia, boyarin9@yandex.ru, ORCID 0000-0002-0306-8276

 

Abstract. This article examines the transformation of strategic documents for the development of the Russian Arctic, focusing on their value and functional content. Ensuring balance, continuity, and comprehensiveness in the regulatory influence  of Arctic macroregional strategic management is particularly relevant amid the ongoing transformation of institutional foundations. The primary aim of this study is to identify the specific nature of these transformations and assess the continuity of their core principles. The research analyzes the value and functional content of strategic development documents for  the Russian Arctic Zone, using official strategic planning documents as its information base. The study employs semantic  and content analysis methods, utilizing the analytical capabilities of the Discant (Vega) system, the SemSin parser, and the Stalker utility. To assess discrepancies in semantic content, the Bray-Curtis index is applied. A detailed comparative analysis is conducted on strategic and policy documents from the first (2008–2014) and second (2020–2021) waves of Arctic policy formulation. The study identifies primary and secondary transformations in the value-semantic and functional content  of these documents, as well as aspects of their continuity in the broader framework of socio-economic development.  A key feature of the transformations is the expansion of specific policy measures in priority areas, including  “ensuring security,” “government support for economic entities,” and “attracting investments.” Notably, there is a growing emphasis on “security” in both military and public contexts, reflected in both value frameworks and policy measures. However, in certain areas, discrepancies emerge between the evolution of value orientations and the dynamics of policy implementation. The scientific contribution of this study lies in its depth of analysis and the quality of its examination  of the value-semantic dimension within the transformation of Arctic strategic documents. Its practical significance is evident in the improved analytical capabilities it provides for refining policy and strategic documents, ensuring a more comprehensive and systematic approach to regulatory interventions. Future research will focus on assessing the internal and dynamic consistency of strategic documents in terms of their goals, measures, and anticipated outcomes.

Keywords: Russian Arctic, Arctic strategy, strategic goals, values, activities, semantic analysis, content analysis

Acknowledgments: This research was funded by the Russian Science Foundation, project number 24-78-10166,  “Digital Transformation Modeling for Spatial Development Management in the Russian Arctic Amid Regional Instability” (https://rscf.ru/project/24-78-10166/).

For citation: Volkov A. D., Roslyakova N. А., Kanevsky E. A., Boyarsky K. K. Russia’s Arctic strategies of 2014 and 2021:  Is continuity possible amid shifting priorities? (Part 1). Sever i rynok: formirovanie ekonomicheskogo poryadka [The North  and the Market: Forming the Economic Order], 2025, no. 1, pp. 7–25. doi:10.37614/2220-802X.1.2025.87.001.

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