INTERNATIONAL TRANSIT VIA THE NORTHERN SEA ROUTE:  THREATS, OPPORTUNITIES, AND FUTURE PROSPECTS

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Anna B. Nikolaeva

Luzin Institute for Economic Studies of the Kola Science Centre of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Apatity, Russia nikolaeva1@iep.kolasc.net.ru, ORCID 0000-0002-6695-5534

 

Abstract. The Northern Sea Route (NSR) is a historically significant transport corridor in Russia and a crucial component  of the country’s national and economic security. While in the 20th century it primarily served as a domestic transportation artery, the 21st century has seen growing international interest in the NSR. Consequently, its role as an international transport corridor is increasing, which is important for Russia: transit serves both as an indicator of the development  of the route’s logistics infrastructure and as a potential additional source of budget revenue.

This article examines the development of international transit along the Northern Sea Route. The study aims to identify priority areas for realizing the NSR’s transit potential and to forecast the volume of freight traffic using dynamic series analysis. The research evaluates the strengths and weaknesses of transit development, as well as opportunities and threats to freight traffic. Based  on a SWOT analysis, key priorities were identified, including expanding the nuclear icebreaker fleet and strengthening cooperation with China in multiple areas. A forecast for freight traffic growth up to 2030 is also presented.

The continued growth in freight traffic underscores the relevance of this study. Its novelty lies in the combination of SWOT analysis to determine priority actions for transit development and the use of dynamic series methods to forecast transit volumes. The practical significance of the study is that its conclusions provide guidance for increasing transit transportation along the NSR.

Keywords: Northern Sea Route, freight traffic growth, nuclear icebreakers, icebreaking services, year-round navigation, SWOT analysis, time series

Acknowledgments: This study was conducted at the Institute for Economic Studies within the National Research Project No. 123012500051-8, titled “Strategic Planning for Arctic Development under New Geo-Economic and Political Realities”.

For citation: Nikolaeva A. B. International transit via the Northern Sea Route: Threats, opportunities, and future prospects. Sever i rynok: formirovanie ekonomicheskogo poryadka [The North and the Market: Forming the Economic Order], 2025, no. 3, pp. 134–148. doi:10.37614/2220-802X.3.2025.89.009.

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