GROSS REGIONAL PRODUCT AS AN INDICATOR OF ECONOMIC SECURITY IN THE RUSSIAN ARCTIC

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Galina V. Kobylinskaya

Luzin Institute for Economic Studies of the Kola Science Centre of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Apatity, Russia, gkobilinskaya@ksc.ru, ORCID 0000-0002-5627-5391

 

Abstract. The growing interest in economic security reflects the rising number of threats and challenges facing the modern world. Within this field, particular attention is devoted to methods for assessing economic security. This study aims to develop an approach for evaluating how structural changes in gross regional product (GRP) affect the economic security of Russia’s Arctic regions. To identify trends in the GRP structure, the analysis considers regional size, the sustainability of economic development, and structural shifts across economic activities. The results reveal several trends: an increasing GRP concentration in the major regions of the Russian Arctic (including the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug, Krasnoyarsk Krai, and the Republic of Sakha), accelerated industrial growth across all regions studied, which is driven primarily by the expanding role of the mining sector, and, consequently, a growing significance of the Russian Arctic in the national mining industry. An assessment of structural shifts demonstrates a link between their magnitude and the stability (or instability) of economic growth: the most pronounced shifts tend to occur during periods of crisis. Under current conditions of escalating sanctions pressure, the risks to the economic development of the Russian Arctic are increasing, especially in regions where GRP is heavily dependent on the energy sector. These trends highlight the need to account for the special status of the Russian Arctic, whose strategic importance has been historically central to the country’s development.

Keywords: gross regional product, Russian Arctic, economic activities, economic security, critical points, structural shift

Acknowledgments: This research was conducted within the framework of the state-funded research project titled  “Strategic Approaches to Managing Financial and Investment Potential to Ensure the Financial Security of Sustainable Development in Russia’s Arctic Regions in the New Geopolitical Reality” (123012500049-5).

For citation: Kobylinskaya G. V. Gross regional product as an indicator of economic security in the Russian Arctic. Sever i rynok: formirovanie ekonomicheskogo poryadka [The North and the Market: Forming the Economic Order], 2025, no. 4,  pp. 74–90. doi:10.37614/2220-802X.4.2025.90.005.

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