STRUCTURAL SHIFTS IN THE ARCTIC ECONOMY DRIVEN BY THE SPILLOVER  OF INVESTMENT DEMAND ACROSS INDUSTRIES

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Vladimir N. Myakshin1, Vladimir N. Petrov2, Lyudmila A. Chizhova3, Tatyana N. Pesyakova4

1, 3N. Laverov Federal Center for Integrated Arctic Research of the Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Science, Arkhangelsk, Russia

2Saint Petersburg State Forest Technical University, Saint Petersburg, Russia

4Federal Tax Service of Russia for the Arkhangelsk Region and the Nenets Autonomous Okrug, Arkhangelsk, Russia

1mcshin@yandex.ru, ORCID 0000-0002-3989-7367

2wladimirpetrov@mail.ru, ORCID ID 0000-0003-4991-2249

3chijova.mila@yandex.ru, ORCID 0000-0003-0298-5248

4safuecon@yandex.ru, ORCID ID 0000-0002-5913-8042

Abstract. Under financial constraints, the formulation of structural and investment policies in the Arctic regions must account for investment flows between industries. This highlights the importance of analyzing structural shifts within economic systems resulting from the spillover of investment demand across industries. The objective of this study is to develop economic tools for assessing structural shifts in economic systems arising from interactions between industries. The research is based on the hypothesis that increased investment activity in an initiating industry generates additional investment demand in related industries, thereby driving structural shifts in investment. The study employs the input–output model, which provides detailed information on the relationships among industries, as its primary methodological framework. The main outcome is the development of a methodological toolkit for evaluating investment-driven structural shifts, enabling the prediction of structural transformations in the economies of Arctic regions. The novelty of the research lies in the creation of a system of original indicators for assessing investment-induced structural shifts, the clarification of their economic meaning, and the presentation of a corresponding calculation algorithm. A new classification of fixed assets has been proposed based on the degree of their involvement in producing the final outputs of interconnected industries. The proposed methodology was tested using data from the Arkhangelsk Region, one of Russia’s Arctic territories. The study examines the influence of investment spillover effects on the structure of final outputs across various economic activities. It substantiates the patterns and causal relationships underlying structural shifts driven by the spillover of investment demand between industries and assesses the resulting economic consequences. The developed toolkit makes it possible to forecast structural changes within economic systems. A promising direction for future research is to evaluate the impact of investment interactions between industries on investment activity in Arctic regions using a multiplier-based approach.

Keywords: Arkhangelsk Region, Arctic regions, interindustry relationships, types of economic activity, sectoral structure, investment flows, investment-driven structural shifts

Acknowledgments: This research was conducted as part of the FNIR project titled “Adaptation of Arctic Socio-Ecological-Economic Systems to the Conditions of a Dynamically Changing Environment as a Basis for Increasing the Investment Attractiveness of the Russian Arctic Regions,” No. 125021902573-9.

For citation: Myakshin V. N., Petrov V. N., Chizhova L. A., Pesyakova T. N. Structural shifts in the Arctic economy driven by the spillover of investment demand across industries. Sever i rynok: formirovanie ekonomicheskogo poryadka [The North and the Market: Forming the Economic Order], 2025, no. 4, pp. 138–151. doi:10.37614/2220-802X.4.2025.90.009.

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