Original article

THE DEMOGRAPHIC REASONS OF NEW PERIOD OF FERTILITY DECLINE IN THE NORTHERN REGIONS OF RUSSIA

 Maria A. Zyryanova

Institute for Social Economic and Energy Problems of the North, Federal Research Center Komi Science Centre, UB RAS, Syktyvkar, Russia, zyryanova.1809@mail.ru, ORCID 0000-0002-3567-3470

Abstract. At the last time the North is a one of important vector of country’s economy strategic development. A rich mineral resource and fuel and energy bases give the reason for development and implementation of the new investment projects. Successful economic developing of territories needs in human resources, however a number of northern regions of the country have persistent problems in demographic sphere: low level of birth-rate and migration outflow. Here are Republic of Karelia, Komi Republic, Arkhangelsk, Murmansk, Magadan, Sakhalin and Kamchatka regions and in 2018–2019 the Chukotka Autonomous Region also can be included. In the last years in these regions, as in the whole in Russia, the deterioration of the birth-rate situation began. Therefore, the purpose of the research is to identify demographic reasons of birth-rate reduction in the Russian northern regions. The index method was used. It helped to find what value at the dynamics of total birth-rate coefficient belongs to changes in the proportion of women aged 15–49 years old in a population, in the age birth-rate coefficient, and also in the age structure of a female reproductive group. According to research it was found a favorable effect in 2014–2016 on the preservation of the positive dynamic of the total birth-rate coefficient in the conditions of negative influence of factors of demographic structure exactly for a reason of increasing of the real fertility. It was detected, that in 2017–2019, a negative effect on the dynamic of the total birth-rate coefficient has implemented significant decrease in birth-rate itself and not only structural factors. The revealed beginning of the reduction of age-specific birth rates confirms the importance of prolongation of family and demographic policy in the field of improving the economic situation of families with children, increasing the status of parenthood in society. The high-priority task in the conditions of factors increasing, that complicate to preserve economic stability in the country, is to provide a decent level and quality of life, an accessibility of the most important living benefits — comfortable housing and jobs with salary, that can qualitatively satisfy a wide range of needs of families with children.

Keywords: fertility, the age structure of population, the age specific fertility rate, natural population decline, migration, demographic policy, index method, the northern regions of Russia.

Acknowledgments: the article was supported by research project ‘Population of the Northern Areas of Russia: History of Formation and Prospects of Development’ (no. ГР АААА-А19-119012190103-0, 2019–2021).

For citation: Zyryanova M. A. The demographic reasons of new period of fertility decline in the northern regions of Russia. Sever i rynok: formirovanie ekonomicheskogo poryadka [The North and the Market: Forming the Economic Order], 2021, no. 3, pp. 104-117. doi:10.37614/2220-802X.3.2021.73.007