RUSSIAN ARCTIC REGIONS: MACROECONOMIC TRENDS, ENVIRONMENTAL AND ECONOMIC RESILIENCE

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Nadezhda A. Krasilnikova1, Anna S. Lukovtseva2, Erkhan E. Savvin3

1, 3Arctic Research Center of Sakha Republic (Yakutia), Yakutsk, Russia

2Center for Strategic Research under the Head of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia), Yakutsk, Russia

1stepanovanadezda21@gmail.com, ORCID 0000-0001-5410-4305 2anna_lu90@mail.ru, ORCID 0000-0002-2126-7973

3erkhan.savvin@mail.ru, ORCID 00009-0000-2047-9192

Abstract. This paper explores the environmental and economic resilience of the regions within the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation (AZRF). We define a region’s environmental and economic resilience as its capacity to withstand external shocks, independently restore the balance between its economy and environment, and transform while maintaining or improving  the balance between its environmental and economic systems. The study’s relevance stems from the rapid industrialization of the Russian Arctic in recent years and the constraints on investment in environmental technologies, green production, and management. The study discusses an analysis of macroeconomic, environmental, and economic indicators of the Russian Arctic regions, examining their interrelations during the pandemic crisis and under the pressure of Western sanctions. From 2018 to 2022, the anthropogenic impact on the environment in the Russian Arctic gradually declined, although the situation varied for individual indicators depending on trends in the regional sectors. Regions were identified that lead in environmental and economic resilience as well as those showing increased anthropogenic impact despite declining industrial production. A multidimensional classification of regions  in the Russian Arctic was developed based on indicators characterizing the state of the environmental and economic spheres.  Clusters of regions with high, low, and limited levels of environmental and economic resilience were identified. The study revealed that the macroeconomic situation in these regions is more dynamic than their environmental and economic conditions. Macroeconomic indicators in the Arctic regions demonstrate different trends during periods of external shocks. Overall, the Russian Arctic economy was sensitive to the 2020 crisis; the 2022 sanctions had a negative impact on economies focused  on Western markets, and in 2023, macroeconomic dynamics slowed down across all regions of the Russian Arctic.  Further research is necessary to understand the factors influencing the environmental and economic resilience of the Russian Arctic regions under current conditions.

Keywords: regional sustainability, economic trends, environmental intensity of the economy, environmental and economic resilience, Russian Arctic, external shocks, cluster analysis

Acknowledgments: This research was conducted as part of the scientific project titled “Strategies for the Sustainable Development of the Russian Arctic Regions: Adapting to New Realities” and supported by the Russian Science Foundation under Agreement No. 23-28-01858 of January 16, 2023.

For citation: Krasilnikova N. A., Lukovtseva A. S., Savvin E. E. Russian Arctic regions: Macroeconomic trends, environmental and economic resilience. Sever i rynok: formirovanie ekonomicheskogo poryadka [The North and the Market: Forming  the Economic Order], 2024, no. 3, pp. 90–106. doi:10.37614/2220-802X.3.2024.85.006.

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