Original article

SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT SCENARIOS OF THE WHITE SEA REGIONS

Anna E. Kurilo¹, Pavel V. Druzhinin²

^{1, 2}Institute of Economics of the Karelian Research Centre of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Petrozavodsk, Russia

¹akurilo@mail.ru, ORCID 0000-0002-7222-7832

²pdruzhinin@mail.ru, ORCID 0000-0001-5303-0455

 Abstract. In the process of creating a national system of strategic planning and within the framework of normative economics, the scenario approach provides opportunities for constructing goals and directions of socio-economic territories development. Being a planning tool the scenario approach allows forming the directions of regional development. These processes take particular relevance for the regions of our country that are the parts of the Arctic zone, especially in increased interest and attention to these territories resources from other external agents. The main aim of this paper is to elaborate development scenarios for the regions, which are fully or partially included in the Arctic zone and the White Sea catchment area. Based on the dynamics analysis of the main macroeconomic indicators and development trends for 1990–2019, the dependence of indicators for forecasting socio-environmental and economic development of these regions, was built. We applied scenario approach to describe possible development scenarios of Arctic regions in the White Sea catchment area. The novelty of the work is the construction of matrix of development scenarios of the Arctic regions, united by belonging to the White Sea catchment area. The analysis results of macroeconomic indicators for three elements of sustainable development show that the regions have rather weak economic development, stagnation of social indicators and difficult environmental situation. We outlined the problems constraining the development of Arctic regions in the White Sea catchment area and the directions to their solutions. To reach the trajectory of sustainable development is possible under condition of coordination and implementation of the measures taken by the state and regional authorities. This scenario of development strategy according to the innovation trajectory will allow to consolidate activity of federal, regional and municipal authorities of these territories. The integrated development program of the Arctic regions in the White Sea catchment area can be a coordinating platform.

Keywords: coastal areas, Arctic zone of Russia, the White Sea, development scenarios, sustainable development.

Acknowledgments: the work was supported by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research, project No. 18-05-60296 “Basic Challenges of Environment and Social Medium of the White Sea and Its Catchment: State and Possible Changes Depending on Various Climate and Economic Change Scenarios”.

For citation: Kurilo A. E., Druzhinin P. V. Socio-economic development scenarios of the White Sea regions. Sever i rynok: formirovanie ekonomicheskogo poryadka [The North and the Market: Forming the Economic Order], 2021, no. 3, pp. 52-69. doi: 10.37614/2220-802X.3.2021.73.004